Political Sci-Fi

Political parties are often dominated by older people, and since older people always think the crazy new days are going to hell, it is probably natural that one tendency in politics is to think that we are always racing away from a golden age.  The cures for all the problems and madness of today are in a return to the values and practices of the past.  That has probably been true since the first humans strung together a couple of grunts for communication.

A countertendency in the last few centuries, building on apocalyptic visions of the last few millennia, is that we must change completely and move to something new, something radical, something untried since all the old ways have failed us.  Problems can only be solved by some massive new approach, usually logically worked out from a contemporary trend.  In a nutshell, that is the “Western” concept of progress.

Both of these approaches have their faults and virtues.  The main problem is that as history and science have extended our concept of time past, their proponents have tended to elongate their cosmic visions of the unknowable future.  Once upon a time, not returning to the ways of our ancestors would ruin us before the next election, and not allowing for progress would harm the prosperity in the next decade.  But now the actions must be taken to avoid catastrophe for grandchildren, or generations yet unborn, or in thousands of years.  And at that scale, any projection is, politely, science fiction.

The future always surprises us, for we are incapable of predicting it.   You do not know what will happen to you later today, let alone in ten years.  What seems important this minute may become trivial in light of what will actually occur later _ in fact, it is almost certain to fade into obscurity.  We know our individual lives work out this way _how can we possibly think that politicians dreaming of doom or destiny for millions or billions like us into the decades ahead can possibly be other than raving lunatics, seeking present gain with fantasy pleas about the future?

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Over the years, I have seen many politically “critical” crises or expectations come and go, which I can easily categorize by decade.  Each was supposed to change the world, then faded away.  In the fifties the world was settling down for a long golden age, except for those pesky Russians and a likely nuclear war; in the sixties parts of the world were turning into enemies like dominoes, and children were going crazy; in the seventies the cities were turning into hellholes and clean air and water were gone forever; in the eighties we all needed to wear sweaters because the oil was gone and the Arabs were going to own everything;  in the nineties paradise on earth was going to arrive except that the Japanese were going to own everything;  In the last decade _ well, take your choice. 

My own crises by decade were different, of course, but none of my long term projections meant very much.  My careers changed and I made more money than I once thought possible.  On the other hand, several times on the verge of seeming wealth, the companies I worked for went under and my options became worthless.  My kids became what all children do _ which is unknowable in advance.  None of my long term projections ended up being anything more than fantasies to help make it through the short-term daily and yearly problems.

Politicians, in sci-fi mode to attract cult followers, now tell us entitlements will chain our grandchildren to slavery, which is nonsense.  Even if older people survive plagues, war, and whatever else might happen to kill them all off, the younger generation would simply revolt and enslave the old geezers instead.  It’s happened before.  Food may become scarce, any of millions of things good and bad may happen, trying to figure out ten, twenty, fifty year projections is still a fantasy.  But politicians are worse, they pretend their fantasy is scientific or social truth.

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Wiffengoofs

To the halls of congress gleaming, to the dingy statehouse cells

With the advertising themes that cast a spell
Come politicos assembled
With their palms held open wide
And their shouting dire predictions serves them well

Yes, the worst of things will happen

If we don’t do what they say
For our children, or some hundred years to last
They will really do quite little
‘cause this moment doesn’t count
Then they’ll pass and be forgotten with the rest

They’re poor little prophets who’ve lost their way

Bah, bah, bah
Intellectual lightweights who’ve gone astray
Bah, bah, bah
Political hucksters off on a spree
Spouting slogans of dooms they foresee
Anything to achieve victory

Bah, bah, bah
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If you are convinced that a political view is correct, that some terrible thing will happen in the distant future unless action is immediately done, what can you do?  Sure, you can vote for an appropriate person, or contribute to the movement, or even join in demonstrations.  But with millions of people or more voting, and billions not voting in your area, what effect can it all have, globally?  It seems foolish, like going to the ocean with even thousands of others and building a sand dike against the rising tide.

You can certainly change the near and short term.  You can act locally, you can act today.  But, again, how much does your individual action matter.  If you stop pouring pollution into the water, but everyone else keeps doing so, nothing constructive has happened.  That is, after all, what governments are for. 

The key issue is you thinking you know the problem, or your voting for someone who you think knows the problem.  That sets up rigid preconceptions and hardline positions that often accomplish nothing.  The proper way to go about it is to find a political party that is flexible, and a person who can listen to experts, and a wise leader who can actually apply some common sense not only to the answers, but also to the questions themselves.

That is a hard pill to swallow, because you always know that you are right, or at least the most right.  If you care deeply, then you assume you must understand correctly.  And when you translate that into political action, thought becomes slogans and slogans become policy, and the true issues and their possible solutions are often lost.  And all the time, the people leading the cause tend to play on the position as merely a lever to keep them in power, and like dedicated fanatics everywhere, even if they believe what they say, the inability to evaluate other options makes much of what you really think should happen an exercise in futility.  The worst thing is, of course, that unlike short term problems and short term solutions to them, the long term issues are never evaluated while the politicians are actually in power, and we may never learn if any of the scenarios were true or not.

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The world and its problems, current and future, are extremely complicated and often have no solutions, only outcomes.  Politicians, however, need to represent something that sets them apart from other candidates;  that makes them more acceptable and desirable than their opponents, and that can be clearly expressed in slogans which are understood by those with little time to follow deep issues.

Seizing on one topic, no matter how important, is always a dangerous exaggeration, especially when projecting far future consequences.  The real world does not exist in a static state, where one variable can be manipulated to see what happens.  Everything is always happening all the time, and what seems trivial this moment may turn out to be gigantic ten years from now.  At this moment, for example, who can possibly predict the full effects of computerized surveillance and enforcement if they should continue to become less expensive and more widespread?  And that is only things we might be aware of _ there are countless other things happening in a world of seven billion _ mad doctors in hidden labs,  paranoid dictators and generals, budding prophets in obscure tenements, infinite threats and infinite hopes and all plunging forward at the same time to interact somehow in what will come.  Single variables just dilute into nothingness.

A good example is a concern with national finances.  Finance is always a mass illusion _ the purchasing power and value of anything depends on belief in a common myth.  Thinking that current twenty or fifty year projections of finance and its effect on future society have any meaning for today _ the current phrase is our grandchildren will be paying for our spending _ is a grandiose empty dream.  The rest of what the world is will not stand still, the world of our grandchildren will probably not resemble today in any way _ for better or worse _ and it is unlikely that worrying about our illusions of their financial responsibilities will play much of a part.  These are simply recasting of religious sermons meant not to much influence the future, but to gain control of us today.

The extremely complicated real world needs to be dealt with now, today, this year _ not fifty years from now.  Sure, we can clean up the air and water and protect the environment and live more within our means.  But we can rationally do it only for the short term, and adjust as the times move on.  Telling us how much our sacrifices will mean (or how dire our sins will work out) after we have died is _ in politics _ simply a shortcut to public power and the purse that goes with it.

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Cassandra lived down the block, in the tiny old blue cape cod.  None of us knew her background, she seemed to have been around forever, and her world was always falling apart and soon to be gone.  Which, she constantly reminded us, was all our fault.  She sometimes ran for local office, and sometimes won, but her only compass once in office was to oppose any change _since dealing with situations that always change is what organizations must do, she was rapidly unpopular and, at least in her own terms, unsuccessful.

Her predictions covered everything from the rowdy behavior of the neighbor’s kids (they’d come to a bad end) to the fall in property values that would inevitably follow an unmowed lawn across the street.  She told us how the town was falling apart, and indeed how the world itself would soon be no more, and certainly no more as we’d like it to be.  She could take any tiny element and like a pulp novelist spin it into an ongoing and irresistible wave of horror.  And with so many to choose from, some predictions inevitably turned out to be more or less right _ these were the only ones she remembered and let nobody else forget.

But her own place and her own family were secure.  Until one of her grown sons became drug addicted, lost his career and home, moved back in with her, and burned the house down one rainy night.  It was the real catastrophe she had expected for everyone.  But she never saw it coming, and whatever she might have done within her own sphere to head it off remained forever unexamined.

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The thing is, life is lived in the short term, and the world never repeats.  Nobody, not even your children, live your own life again.  Dreaming about the long-term is in many ways just a fantasy to escape the duties of the present _ and while you are dreaming, accidents of the moment can destroy you and all your plans.  Trying to direct the world of the future with laws about the present is just as futile.  What society needs are good laws now, justice now, problems solved now.  Politicians who stick their brain into a futuristic slogan-lined hole in the sand help no one, and simply aggravate the situation. 

Where will our country be in one hundred years, socially or fiscally or environmentally?  Nobody knows, not scientists, not prophets, most especially not politicians.  We look back a hundred years ago and mostly laugh, although we do appreciate a few of the things that were done such as preserving national parks (basically on land nobody wanted at the time, however).  Our grandchildren, should there be any, will mostly appreciate that we survived somehow, and left something for them to work with, but the exact shape of what they have and what they do with it will remain, for us, an eternal mystery.

So when a politician tells you what must be done to save the future, or to restore the past, go and read a nice science fiction thriller instead.  It is more likely to be useful.  Look for politicians that tell us what we need to do now, honestly, and you generally find that they either want to preserve much of the status quo, or they want to change certain parts of it, which are valid political points of discussion.  But if they say benefits will accrue ten or twenty or fifty years on, that pain today means wonderful gain in the imaginary future, ignore them as you would any other bad novelist.  The time is now, the place is here, and the actions that mean anything happen this very instant.